Traveling out to the Midwest today
With only two games over 60 degrees today it’s a perfect time to try to find value on the runline. And I think I have a game on the early slate where I just might get that value.
Pirates v Cardinals Quick Look
The Cardinals were one of the most frustrating teams for me as a gambler last year. It was more on the offensive side of things where when you looked at that line up anchored by Goldschmidt and Arenado ….you’d anticipate far more output than what we were given. St Louis is a hitters park when the conditions are right and that’s usually mid summer “Nooners.” I told some of the guys about that little secret last year and we rode a good three week span of overs on Noon games in the Midwest. The humidity and strong winds will have Busch looking like Coors some days. On paper, the matchup today looks like the over 8 is a lock despite the cold . Heading to the mound for the Pirates is Mitch Keller. He sports a career 6 era and comes in from a spring training that was just as bad as you would expect from a guy with a career 6 era. He’s also nursing a thigh injury which might spell doom for the Pirates bullpen. There’s not a lot of real talent in this pirates line up but they are one of the teams where they are not expecting to compete in many games this year. Cardinals are countering with Miles Mikolas who has a career 3.85 era but last year in 9 appearances as a starter his era was over 4. Mikolas has talent, in fact when he debut 3 years a go his ERA was under 3 and he won 18 out of 22 starts. I’ve seen him bounce around in their rotation and bullpen so it makes me think they have faith in him to find his old form again.
Like I stated earlier if you put a career 6 era v a guy who is almost career 4 era you’d anticipate an over 8 even with sub par hitting conditions. I personally worry about how good this pirates offense will be versus a really stellar Cardinals defense. Actually stellar might be underselling them from catcher to first , third , and centerfield they might have the best defense east of LA (Dodgers hatred redacted). So even if Mikolas is awful in my mind the ball has to leave the park for a pirates offensive explosion and I don’t want to bet on that any time soon. Looking at the percentages over at Action Sports looks like the public and sharps are all in favor of the under 8. Again with me searching for value I’m going to take my shot on the Pirates team total under 3.5. Hoping that if Mikolas gets in trouble the guys behind him will bail him out. Also, it’s worth noting that Mikolas is career 2.89 era v the Pirates and the one guy who really gave him hell (Colin Moran) is not in the lineup. Vogelbach is concerning but thankfully the Pirates have him leading off. That should limit his RBI ability greatly. The Pirates also were beat 9-0 in their first game and I like that the meat of the Cardinals lineup came out firing Game 1. I’m back on the full run line of Cardinals -1.5 looking for guys like Goldie to keep the good times rolling even if they get up a couple runs late. If you want to play the over Cardinals side it’s 4.5 on most books I personally don’t want to mess with it based on my personal experiences with the Cardinals last year and the temperatures being chilly but you’re obviously free to take that risk. There’s some value there because the Pirates frankly are not a good team.
Leans (Looking out West tonight)
Astros @ Angels (9:07 pm ET)
Verlander hasn’t pitched in forever. Wild to me that this Run line is under 4 for the Angels team total side. Leaning to the over 3.5 Angels side because Verlander won’t go more than 5 I’m sure. Slight breeze out to left and temps around 77 to start….. the over 9 is a lovely number too at first look. Thor doesn’t pitch long normally and he walks guys. Astros have always been a great fast ball hitting team and that’s Thor best/most over used pitch
Padres @ Diamondbacks (8:07 pm ET)
Looking at this game on first look I like the value of a Dbacks money line outright and the under 9. Padres offense just isn’t the same without Tatis, there is plenty of data providing evidence to that and they don’t have the late game clutch hits with him missing. Davies is sneaky efficient when he is on and he typically keeps the ball on the ground. Arizona will be playing with the roof closed and are still using the humidors to keep the temperature down inside the dome so I see this 9.5 under as a little gift this early in the season on top of taking my chances with a Dbacks outright.