Big shoes had to be filled after a fatal crash at the Daytona 500 in 2001 that involved Dale Earnhardt Sr. A legend was lost and nobody knew what to expect of the rookie that would be filling his seat, Kevin Harvick.

In just his third race, Harvick drove his number 29 Goodwrench Chevrolet to victory lane at Atlanta Motor Speedway. That year, “The Closer” finished with two wins, six Top 5s, and 16 Top 10’s.

Fast forward 15 years, and the NASCAR veteran is at the top of his game, and one of the best drivers on the circuit. A lot of his success is due to a 2013 offseason move that had Harvick leave Richard Childress Racing, and sign with Stewart-Haas Racing.

In a little over two years, 84 races to be exact, the pilot of the number four Jimmy Johns Chevrolet has nine wins, 42 Top 5s, 57 Top 10s, and a championship. He has been the best driver in terms of driver rating over that span.

These numbers are great, but with the announcement earlier this year of Stewart-Haas Racing switching to Ford, will his production decline? The statistics say yes. In the same time frame Harvick moved to SHR, a Chevrolet has won 38 races to Ford’s 23. That’s a 15 race differential, almost half a NASCAR season.

A little insight for those that don’t know, SHR gets their engines and chassis from Hendrick Motorsports. So to take those stats a little further, out of the 38 races won by Chevrolet from 2014-2016, 37 were by Hendrick affiliated cars.

With rumors coming out about the possibility of Kevin Harvick opting out of his contract with SHR at the end of the year, and moving to Hendrick Motorsports, the question at hand is, should he do it?

This should be a no brainer for the 16 year veteran. All of the success he has had in this sport has been with a Chevrolet. His most recent success has come from Hendrick supplied engines and chassis. Why move to a new manufacturer where there will be growing pains, when you can stay in the same equipment you’ve been in for the last three years?

SHR will get their engines from Roush Racing. As I said earlier, 23 wins have come from ford since 2013, and 22 of those are from Roush Racing affiliates (Penske Racing). Ford has been struggling with speed for the past five seasons, and has not won a championship since 2004. In that span, Chevrolet has won nine Championships.

The holdup in this process could be that Hendrick Motorsports doesn’t have room for Kevin Harvick, but that problem could quickly be solved. Dale Earnhardt Jr is the money maker, Jimmie Johnson is the championship winner, and Chase Elliott is the up and coming star that has potential through the roof. That leaves one man out of this four car team, Kasey Kahne.

Many believed when Kahne moved to Hendrick in 2012, the dial was pointing up for him and his career. He was an accomplished driver winning many races with organizations that were above average at best. It has been the complete opposite in this marriage between the two.

Since joining HMS, Kahne has only five wins in five seasons. It has been nothing but disappointment for the 13 year veteran. Since the Chase for the Sprint Cup reformatted in 2014, Kasey Kahne hasn’t finished better than 15th in the standings.

Putting the possible replacement side by side to the driver that will be cut, the numbers are clearly tilted one way.

Since 2014
Kevin Harvick/Kasey Kahne
9 Wins 1
42 Top 5’s 8
57 Top 10’s 25
5,119 Laps Led 284
1 Championships 0

This is a match made in heaven for both Kevin Harvick and Hendrick Motorsports. Harvick will stay in the same equipment he has found the most success in, and Hendrick will add another championship caliber driver to his stable. If I’m Kevin Harvick, I would’ve signed a deal yesterday.