PITT Panthers ACC Tournament Preview
For a team that has spent most of the season doing what was expected of them, the 2015-16 Pitt Panthers have thrown a wrench into things at the end of the season. This is a team that started the season 14-1 – not all cupcakes either- as the run extended into the beginning of conference play, defeating three ACC opponents (Syracuse, Georgia Tech, and Notre Dame) in that span. The only loss came against Purdue, then ranked 11, who has largely kept afloat (they’ve dropped two spots to 13, but over the course of the remaining half of the season that’s essentially a wash). After a loss to Louisville, the season began to turn on its head.
Alternating wins and losses is never a good thing for a college basketball team, especially one trying to earn a spot in the NCAA tournament. A feat that until recently had been a yearly expectation for Jamie Dixon’s young men. A loss to Louisville was followed by a win over Boston College, then the only truly bad loss on the season, hosting NC State at the Petersen Events Center. Dropping a game by 15 points to a team that would ultimately finish third to last in conference is never a wise move. Nonetheless, the Panthers managed to rebound by squeaking out a marginal win over Florida St before dropping a game away at fellow mid-packers Clemson. Yet again, it was followed by a win, this time over Virginia Tech.
The next stretch of games represented a heartbreaking murderers’ row, three losses to the top teams in the conference: Virginia, Miami, UNC. The Virginia game (Virginia? When did they get good?) wasn’t particularly close and it was the only one at home. Miami, the middle game, was a two point loss, a “moral victory” for those who believe in such things. UNC, as expected, did a solid if expected demolition job. On the right side of the ledger, games against Wake Forest and Syracuse (again) provided a bit of an oasis before two more against top teams. Both were expected wins, and both times the Panthers delivered.
The return match with Louisville provided the same result as the first; a close first half but ultimately a Louisville win. Nonetheless, overall to this point it had been a solid enough season and was likely to garner a spot, if only just on the right side of the bubble. Then it happened. Pitt 76, Duke 62. Duke fancied themselves a contender for the conference title until a three-loss span in the middle of their conference season, yet were still quite high in the standings and should have been expected to produce the same result against Pitt that every ranked team had done thus far. On the night, Pitt put together the best performance of the season and beat Duke in a game that was never particularly competitive. If this Pitt could show up a month later, a return to the glory days might be in order.
That’s it, job done, right? Surely a team who was likely in, then beat Duke, would be a lock? Not so fast, after dropping the final two to Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech. Sure, both teams are middlers like Pitt (Georgia Tech is fourth to last in the ACC but only a single conference loss short of Pitt, two of Virginia Tech and Clemson) but a good team coming off a big win should at least be able to secure one more win out of the two. Now, with both games being a loss, the ACC tournament holds all the cards. A win against Syracuse (a team Pitt has beaten twice this season, and should confidently make it a third) will see them in. A loss shouldn’t really damage anything, this is a team near the bubble but decidedly on the right side of it, but stranger things have happened.
Going into the conference tournament, that’s essentially where things stand. No wins, and this is almost a bubble team. Pair that with teams just on the wrong side of the cut line all making runs and Pitt could hypothetically miss out, but has perhaps a 10% chance or less of doing so. First four is a possibility. One win (the most likely result) and it’s the dreaded 8-9 game, one which hasn’t worked out too well for the Panthers in the past unless it’s a horrendous underseeding (see the 2014 tournament, Pitt-Colorado, for the horrendous underseeding mentioned earlier). Still, it’s a berth, one with a decent chance of a tournament win, and this is the season to be stuck facing a 1 seed if there was ever such a season.
In order to get a more secure seed, it’ll take a gargantuan effort. UNC awaits after the Syracuse game. It’s possible UNC will be looking ahead and get caught out of the conference tournament, but unlikely since a 1 seed is in play for them. Get past that, and it’s the winner of Notre Dame/Duke, and a likely overmatched NC State (who barely scraped a three point win over Wake, and would then have to beat both Duke and Notre Dame to get to said point – highly unlikely). Hypothetically, if Pitt could somehow pass UNC, a potential Duke rematch looks very tasty for a team trying to improve seeding quickly. In the Big East, Pitt had a habit of making long, drawn out runs in the conference tournament, a trait that hasn’t carried over to the ACC thus far. Bring back some of the old magic, and this could look like a very different team this time next week.
